Trade Idea (RSI, Woodies CCI, Divergence, GMMA) 2020-08-27

Trade Idea

Good morning.
Yesterday, USD was bought back until the end of the European market, but in the US market USD selling pressure became dominant. After EURUSD fell temporarily to 1.177 in the middle of the European market, it became a buyback dominance in the US market, ending the US market at around 1.183.

Kansas City Fed Governor has reportedly said he would tolerate more than 2% of inflation, before the Jackson Hole meeting, in the US market USD speculative selling became dominant, and long-term interest rates declined (Bond was bought), also Gold futures rose sharply up to 1,950.

It’s a difficult situation. No position until tonight.
I also thought yesterday that it would be a time to change the environment’s perception significantly depending on the trend of US long-term interest rates. There are two different scenarios. Whether the real interest rate will increase in the future, or whether the real interest rate will not rise due to the dovish policy that allows inflation

We are on the lookout until the Jackson Hole meeting. It could move a lot tonight. The VIX index is also rising.

DXI (US Dollar Index) D1 + US10Y (US 10 year bond yield)


XAUUSD (Gold) H1

Market Environment

Yesterday’s currency strength

US market last night

Dow30: 28,331 (+83, +0.30%)
S&P500: 3,478(+1.02%)
NASDAQ: 11,665 (+1.73%)
WTI Crude Oil futures: 43.36↓
VIX index: 23.27↑
US 10-year government bond yield: 0.679↓
Gold futures: 1,961↑

Asian market today

Nikkei 225 futures: around 23,264 (-28)
US Dow30 Futures: around 28,276 (-35)

Economic indicators today

GMT 12:30 (US) New Jobless Claim
GMT 13:10 (US) FRB Mr. Powell Chairman’s lecture (Jackson Hole Meeting)

8/27 (Thurs)-8/28 (Fri) Jackson Hole Meeting
(8/27 (Thurs.) GMT 13:10 FRB Mr. Powell Chairman’s lecture)

8/24 (Mon)-8/27 (Thu) American Republican National Convention
8/27 Speech by President Trump