Trade Idea (RSI, Woodies CCI, Divergence, GMMA, Fibonacci, Pivot) 2020-09-17

Trade Idea

Good morning.

As for the FOMC, the zero-interest rate policy remained unchanged until 2023, and it was generally as expected. As with last month’s FOMC summary, buyback of USD became dominant. EURUSD temporarily fell to 1.179 and then closed the US market around 1.1815.

On EURUSD H1 chart below, we can see “Gartley” pattern and occurrence of bullish regular divergence. For short term view, adjustments might continue, but the long-term upside uptrend view is unchanged, and buy on dips stance is unchanged. I will keep an eye on the movement of GBP. Today MPC will be held.

[ Critical level of EURUSD ]
1.1900, 1.1911 (Fibo 0.618), 1.1925 (Weekly Pivot R1), 1.1955 (Fibo 0.786)
1.1839 (Weekly Pivot), 1.1800, 1.1770 (Weekly Pivot S1)

The most critical target is 1.1955 (Fibo 0.786: Harmonic Pattern – Gartley).

(Please click the chart to enlarge.)

Market Environment

Yesterday’s currency strength

US market yesterday

Dow30: 28,032 (+36, +0.13%)
S&P500: 3,385 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq: 11,050(+1.25%)
WTI future: 40.24↑
VIX index: 26.04↑
US 10 years bond yield: 0.699↑
Gold future: 1,966→

Asian market today

Nikkei:around  23,280(-195)
Dow future:around 27,969(-63 Dow spot)

Economic indicators today

GMT 22:45(NZ)GDP 2Q
GMT 01:30 (AU)Jobless rate
GMT 03:00~(JP)BOJ policy statement
GMT 06:00(JP)Mr. Kuroda press conference
GMT 11:00(UK)MPC policy statement
GMT 12:30(US)New jobless claim