Trade Idea (2020-11-02) EURUSD fell for 5 consecutive days

Trade Idea

Good morning.

Starting this week, the New York market is also in wintertime.

By the way, US stocks fell back last Friday, and sales increased mainly in IT and tech stocks, and DJIA fell by more than 500 temporally. Due to the spread of the second wave of infection of COVID-19, uncertainty about the US presidential election next week, and the end of the month, position adjustments and risk hedging became active, but they were repurchased by the close.

In forex market, EURUSD fell for 5 consecutive days. Due to EUR buying flow at the end of the month, it temporarily rose to 1.17 in London Fixing and then ended at 1.1647. The ECB on the previous day kept the policy unchanged as expected, but the possibility of additional easing in December was clearly shown, leading to EUR selling by European infection of COVID-19 re-spreading and behavioral restrictions. USDJPY has continued to grow slightly, ending at 104.66. At the end of the month in London Fixing, the price temporarily rose to 104.74.

USDJPY stayed on last week without breaking 104. On the other hand, EUR was consistently weak across the ECB. As a counterparty of long-term depreciation of USD, EUR is likely to drop out and JPY might appreciate.

EURUSD H1 (Please click the chart to enlarge.)

USDJPY H1 (Please click the chart to enlarge.)

Market Environment

Yesterday’s currency strength

US market yesterday

DJIA: 26,501.6 (-157.51, -0.59%)
NASDAQ: 10,911.59 (-274, -2.45%)
S&P 500: 3,269.96 (-40.15, -1.21%)
GOLD: 1,878.8 (+10.8)
OIL: 35.72 (-0.45)
US 10-YR: 0.874 (+0.038)
VIX: 38.02 (+0.43)

Asian market today

Nikkei: 23,294~ (+317)
CME Dow future: 26,425~(-76 Dow)

Economic indicators today

GMT 01:45(CH) Mfg-PMI
GMT 15:00 (US) Mfg-ISM