Trade Idea (2020-11-13) Risk off by increasing infection

Trade Idea

Good morning.

DJIA continued to fall on US stocks yesterday, and the rate of decline temporarily expanded to $ 495. U.S. stocks surged this week in favor of interim reports of vaccine candidate clinical trials, but new infections in US continue to be the highest ever and the market has slowed risk-on momentum. IT / tech stocks that were repurchased the day before also sold.

In the foreign exchange market, JPY, CHF, and EUR were bought, and it was a risk-off development as a whole. USDJPY has gained a return-selling advantage, ending at around 105.

EURUSD was a relatively strong move back to the 1.18 level. The scene that broke below the 20-day moving average (around 1.177) continued for two days, but at the moment it is over 20-day line and ended at around 1.1805. The market is confident of additional easing at the ECB Board meeting in December and is incorporating PEPP and TLTRO in the direction of utilization (no rate cuts).

GBP was a full-day selling advantage (see currency strength below). Mr. Kane, senior adviser to UK Prime Minister Johnson and in charge of media strategy, has resigned, and there are concerns that negotiations with the EU, which has entered the final stage, will be hindered.

EURUSD H1 (Please click the chart to enlarge.)

Market Environment

Yesterday’s currency strength

US market yesterday

DJIA: 29,080.17 (-317.46, -1.08%)
NASDAQ: 11,709.59 (-76.84, -0.65%)
S&P 500: 3,537.01 (-35.65, -1%)
GOLD: 1,879.9 (+6.6)
OIL: 40.64 (-0.48)
US 10-YR: 0.882 (-0.004)
VIX: 25.35 (+1.9)

Asian market today

Nikkei: 25,285~ (-235)
CME Dow future: 28,916~(-164 Dow)

Economic indicators today

GMT 13:30 (US) PPI
GMT 15:00 (US) Michigan Centiment