Trade Idea (2020-12-30) USD selling in quiet year-end market

Trade Idea

Good morning.

Yesterday’s US stock market was in a slump at the end of the year, with all major indices declining. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is -0.22%, the S & P 500 is -0.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite is -0.38%.

The US House of Representatives passed a $ 2,000 direct benefit amendment bill requested by President Trump the day before, and the bill has been sent to the Senate, but McConnell’s US Senate Secretary of State (Republican Party) has blocked attempts to vote, and the situation Is an uncertain situation.

In the foreign exchange market, while inflation is expected, including the $ 2000 benefit, real interest rates will fall further as long as the Fed’s low interest rate policy continues, and long-term expectations for a weaker dollar are strong.

USD was totally depreciated, and EURUSD and GBPUSD rose to 1.227 and 1.352, respectively, during New York time.
(Note that EURUSD has risen to 1.229 in Asian time this morning.)

The long-term interest rate was flat at 0.935%, and the VIX index rose to 23 units. Bitcoin has been around 27,600.

EURUSD H1 (Please click the chart to enlarge.)

Market Environment

Yesterday’s currency strength

US market yesterday (last Friday)

DJI: 30,335.67 (-68.30, -0.22%)
S&P500: 3,727.04 (-8.32, -0.22%)
Nasdaq Composite: 12,850.22 (-49.20, -0.38%)
Nasdaq 100: 12,843.49 (+4.63, +0.04%)
Russel 2000: 1,959.36 (-36.89, -1.85%)
Gold Future: 1,881.90 (-1.00)
Oil Future: 48.18 (+0.18)
US10Y: 0.935% (UNCH)
VIX: 23.08 (+1.38)
BTC/USD: 27,599.3496 (+233.09)

Asian market today

Nikkei: 27,387(-180)
CME Dow future: 30,278~(-57 Dow)

Economic indicators in this week

We have no important indicator today.