Trade Idea (RSI, Woodies CCI, Divergence, GMMA) 2020-08-26

Trade Idea

Good morning.
Japanese Yen was weakened by risk-on mood yesterday, but wait-and-see attitude was strengthened in the US market ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting tomorrow.

I think it’s time to make a big change in market recognition, depending on trends in US long-term interest rates. In risk-on mood, US Treasuries is being sold every day due to the development of new treatments and vaccines for COVID-19, and also the progress of US-China trade talks. I think US long-term interest rates may continue to rise.On the other hand, however, as the Jackson Hole meeting is coming up, I think direction will lacks in this week.

U.S. long-term interest rates rose to 0.71% by the middle of the U.S. market, and gold futures temporarily interrupted 1,920, but the dollar returned from the middle of the U.S. market and was dominant in sales, long-term interest rates fell to 0.688%, and gold futures were 1,930.
I am looking for timing of short with a gold CFD. Now I have no positions. USDJPY that moved a lot yesterday is a wait-and-see today. EURUSD will also be on the wait-and-see in this week.

XAUUSD (Gold) H1



Market Environment

Yesterday’s currency strength

US market last night

Dow: 28,248 (-60, -0.21%)
S&P500:: 3,443(+0.36%)
NASDAQ: 11,466 (+0.76%)
WTI Crude Oil Futures: 44.45↑
VIX index: 22.03 ↓
US 10-year government bond yield: 0.688 ↑
Gold futures: 1,935 ↓

Asian market today

Nikkei 225 futures: around 23,300 (+10)
US Dow30 Futures: around 28,200 (+10)

Economic indicators today

GMT 12:30 (US) Order for durable goods
GMT 14:30 (US) Weekly crude oil stock
GMT 17:00 (US) 5-year US bond auction

8/27 (Thurs)-8/28 (Fri) Jackson Hole Meeting
(8/27 (Thurs.) GMT 13:10 FRB Mr. Powell Chairman’s lecture)

8/24 (Mon)-8/27 (Thu) American Republican National Convention
8/27 Speech by President Trump


  • Yesterday’s US stocks fell for the first time in four days (a technical factor due to the largest replacement of the Dow 30 in the last seven years), and the S&P500 & Nasdaq reached a new record high for four consecutive days, by decline in the number of newly infected COVID-19, expectations for the development of drugs and vaccines for COVID-19, and progress of US-China cabinet-level trade talks.
  • From the beginning of the European market, Japanese Yen was sold (see currency strength). USDJPY has risen to 106.56, and EURJPY has risen to over 126.However, there seems to be skepticism about the continued rebound of USDJPY.
  • EURUSD remained firm throughout the day, temporarily rising to around 1.1842, but in the US market there was a lack of direction and a wait-and-see development ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.The IFO Business Confidence Index rose for the fourth straight month.
  • GBPUSD was also bough back, temporarily rising to 1.3169.
  • US long-term interest rates temporarily rose to the 0.71% level and ended at 0.688% (bond prices fell), expectations for new treatments and vaccines for COVID-19, expectations for progress in US-China trade talks, the US bond, which is considered a safe asset, was sold.
  • Gold, as well as bonds, dropped below 1,920.However, it was bought back to 1,930 as the dollar weakened from the middle of the US market.