Trade Idea (RSI, Woodies CCI, Divergence, GMMA) 2020-09-03

Trade Idea

Good morning.

With the position adjustments ahead of Friday’s NFP, the buyback of USD continued, with EURUSD fell to around 1.182 US time and ending the US market at around 1.185. GBPUSD and the AUDUSD also temporarily dropped to 1.328 and 0.73, and ended the US market around 1.335 and 0.733, respectively. On the other hand, US 10-year bond yields fell to 0.648% due to uncertain economic outlook due to weak ADP employment statistics.

USD buyback on Tuesday (the day before yesterday) continued.
USD on the day before yesterday was weak to the European market, and EURUSD touched 1.20 at the beginning of US market, but after that EURUSD fell by about 100 pips at around 1.1901 be factors as follows.

  • Concerns about overbought long position of EUR
  • A sense of achievement of 1.20
  • Lane ECB Chief Economist’s remark on the EUR’s high valuation
  • Strong US ISM Index

It dropped again by 80 pips yesterday, so totally it dropped by 180 pips in 2 days. The hourly chart below shows Fibonacci against the low after the Jackson Hole last week and the high on this Monday. I think EURUSD has already been adjusted to a good point. I wll keep buy on dips stance.


Market Environment

Yesterday’s currency strength

US market yesterday

Dow30: 29,100 (+454, +1.59%)
S&P500: 3,580 (+1.54%)
Nasdaq: 12,056 (+0.98%)
WTI future: 41.67↓
VIX index: 26.57↑
US 10- year bond yield: 0.648↓
Gold future: 1,949↓

Asian market today

Nikkei:around  23,568(+319)
Dow future:around 29,110(+10 Dow spot)

Economic indicators today

GMT 01:30(AU)Trade Balance
GMT 01:45(China)ServicePMI
GMT 12:30(US)New Jobless Claim
GMT 14:00(US)ISM index (Non-Mfg)

9/4 (Fri) (US) Non-Farm Payroll
US market will be closed on next Monday (Labor Day holiday)