Trade Idea (2020-11-04) Risk-on before US election counting

Trade Idea

Good morning.

US stocks were all high yesterday, and DJIA rose to 688 temporally. The move to factor in Biden’s victory is intensifying, but the situation is unclear in swing states. Parliamentary elections are also drawing attention, and while the House of Representatives is almost certain to have a majority of Democrats, the Senate is also more likely to have a Democratic majority.
Forex market has become risk-on USD selling and JPY selling. AUD and other risk currencies are being bought.

It seems that the market will move from around noon Japan time today. The results from Florida, Pennsylvania, etc. are likely to make a big volatility.

EURUSD H1 (Please click the chart to enlarge.)

USDJPY H1 (Please click the chart to enlarge.)

Market Environment

Yesterday’s currency strength

US market yesterday

DJIA: 27,480.03 (+554.98, +2.06%)
NASDAQ: 11,160.57 (+202.96, +1.85%)
S&P 500: 3,369.02 (+58.78, +1.78%)
GOLD: 1,913.1 (+2.7)
OIL: 38.39 (+0.73)
US 10-YR: 0.915 (+0.034)
VIX: 35.55 (-1.58)

Asian market today

Nikkei: 23,685~ (+389)
CME Dow future: 27,560~(+79 Dow)

Economic indicators today

Counting of US presidential election
GMT 13:15 (US) ADP
GMT 15:00 (US) ISM non-mfg